BTC 15m Arena

Purpose

BTC 15m Arena is intended to test whether small, cheap binary-market positions can reach a useful transformation point before resolution: capital recovery, free-roll, partial hedge, locked profit, controlled exit, or a correct no-trade decision.

This is not a prediction product. The research question is not simply whether BTC moves up or down. The focus is execution-aware position management under spread, slippage, liquidity, time pressure, and late-window risk.

Mock arena panel

Static shell only · mock data · no engine yet

• Visible price: shown as a separate concept from executable price.
• Spread and depth: future versions must model the cost of entering and exiting.
• Transformation points: future versions should detect free-roll, lock profit, partial hedge, and late hedge.
• Bot comparison: future versions should compare simple baseline bots before adding complexity.

No calculations are active on this shell. There is no JavaScript engine, no live market feed, no Polymarket connection, no wallet, and no order execution.

Strategies to test later

• Buy the cheap side only when execution cost is acceptable.
• Sell partial size when a position can recover initial capital.
• Identify when a remaining position becomes a free-roll.
• Detect when opposite-side coverage creates locked profit.
• Reject late hedges that add too much capital to rescue a small loss.
• Compare every strategy against RandomBot and NoTradeBot baselines.

Guardrails

• No wallet.
• No private keys.
• No authenticated trading API.
• No orders of any kind are created or submitted.
• No trading automation in this shell.
• No financial advice.
• No predictions as guarantees.
• No profitability claims.
• No live data in this route shell.

The first public surface is intentionally conservative: static explanation, mock panel, and explicit limitations. Real data capture, replay, bots, and simulation logic require separate future phases.

Planned phases

• Simulation engine: pure functions for execution price, slippage, P&L, free-roll, lock profit, and late hedge detection.
• Baseline bots: RandomBot, NoTradeBot, MomentumBot, DistanceTimeBot, ExecutionAwareBot, and PositionManagerBot.
• Fixtures and replay: deterministic non-live 15-minute windows only; no live data in this phase.
• Read-only capture: future snapshots only after the simulator exists, with no orders and no wallet.